They say the Kentucky Derby is the chance of a lifetime and the lifetime of a chance.
More than anything, it is the sturdy old oak in the front yard of sports.
Immune to labor disputes and dismissive of wars, the Derby has happened every year since 1875. Shortened to a mile-and-a-half in 1986 and confined to the first Saturday in May in 1932, it is the best two-minutes-and-change, in sports.
The change will come on Tuesday morning, when Churchill Downs will announce … something.
You can pretty much bet that the Kentucky Derby will not be conducted without spectators. The hat manufacturers wouldn’t let that happen, and neither will anyone else in Louisville because the races on Friday and Saturday are mere timeouts inside the pageant.
But Churchill isn’t expected to call off the Derby either.
It is expected we will learn of a postponement. Maybe there won’t be an official date set right away, but, mysteriously, some downtown Louisville hotels have already filled for Labor Day weekend, with Churchill Downs officials eyeing a Sept. 5 run date, according to multiple media reports on Monday.
A Labor Day Derby could be the Run For The Respirators. It would also challenge the already stressed thoroughbred schedule, at least if there’s a Triple Crown at hand.
A Preakness in mid-September and a Belmont Stakes in early October would bump the sport right next to the Breeders’ Cup, which is usually the first weekend in November, this year at Keeneland.
But even if you correctly scoff at the necessity of sports in the time of the coronavirus, the Derby is the one show that should go on.
Take the Masters, which has abandoned April. It might be quite pleasant, if not quite as floral, in the fall. But if Rory McIlroy and Brooks Koepka, etc., miss the Masters, they can tee it up again in 2021 and beyond.
Authentic, Charlatan, Tiz the Moment, Nadal and the other ambitious 3-year-olds are different. This is their only shot. Their whole racing existence, so far, has been a Derby prep.
Will they still have productive careers without the Triple Crown experience? Of course. Look at Arrogate and Gun Runner, to name two of maybe a thousand. Besides, there’s nothing particularly healthy about three high-stress races in five weeks.
A winning 4-year-old campaign by any of those colts would ensure their breeding value and would be particularly beneficial to Santa Anita, which has a strong schedule for the middle-aged.
But the wide, wide world of sports stops for only one race. The Derby is where the superhorses introduce themselves.
For more than a month in 2015, American Pharoah poked his nose through the cacophony of the NBA playoffs and made horse racing great again. Justify did the same, three years later.
Only champions of that stature can keep the game intact, in the face of massive wagering competition, the lack of appeal to youth, and the annus horribilis that was Santa Anita’s 2019.
As we close in on the Santa Anita Derby and the other final winnowing races, we see potential greatness in the gate. Most of it, of course, is trained by Bob Baffert.
As Nadal was churning to a Rebel Derby win at Oak Lawn last Saturday, Charlatan was sprinting to a 105 Beyer Speed Figure in a mile race at Santa Anita. This came a week after Authentic continued to live up to his name by drawing away in the San Felipe Stakes.
Tiz the Law, trained by Barclay Tagg, gets another chance to stay in the lead pack at the Florida Derby on March 28, one week before the Santa Anita Derby.
Santa Anita is still running, by the way, but without spectators. Asked how that felt on Saturday, one trainer who asked for anonymity said, “There’s a joke in there somewhere.”
If the Kentucky Derby were to run on May 2 as scheduled, that particular Big Four would not be odds-on to make the starting gate. Every day is a potential disqualifying event. Ask Richard Mandella, who thought his Triple Crown ship had finally arrived with Omaha Beach last year.
With a September Derby, the road gets longer and the potholes multiply.
Two weeks ago, few of us foresaw that the most urgent task of our daily life would become the search for two-ply bath tissue. It is useless to predict what happens two weeks hence.
All we do know is that our hours have suddenly grown longer and emptier without the nightly winning and losing.
If we have to wait until Labor Day to remind ourselves how overrated a mint julep can be and how majestic a 20-horse stampede can look, so be it.
You’re only a 3-year-old once.