Marin County’s unemployment rate was the lowest in the state for a 13th consecutive month in November, continuing its gradual recovery since the economic shutdown from the pandemic nearly two years ago.
The county had an unemployment rate of 2.9% in November, down from 3.4% in October, according to data released by the California Employment Development Department on Friday.
“For Marin County, it’s pretty much steady as she goes and classic recovery,” said Robert Eyler, chief economist with the Marin Economic Forum.
Statewide, the unemployment rate dropped to 5.4% and the U.S. rate fell to 4.2% in November.
Marin’s rate is nearing pre-pandemic levels, only about a half-percentage point away from its November 2019 rate of 2.3%.
The second and third-lowest rates in the state were in San Mateo at 3.1% and Santa Clara at 3.2%. Marin is typically among the top three counties with the lowest unemployment rates. The rate is calculated based on Marin residents, who typically have higher-wage jobs that allow them to afford the high housing prices and were not as affected by the pandemic.
Compared with the volatility of the job market at the start of the pandemic, Marin has been returning to its typical seasonal changes, according to state research data specialist Jorge Villalobos.
“For the most part everything did go with its seasonal pattern,” Villalobos said.
But while the unemployment rate is improving, the actual number of jobs in the county is still well below pre-pandemic levels. About 6,100 jobs were gained between November 2020 and November 2021. However, this is 6,100 jobs less than existed in November 2019, with about 3,600, or 59%, of these jobs in the retail, hospitality and other services sectors such as salons, according to Villalobos.
These industries were the hardest hit during the pandemic and it’s unclear whether they will recover to pre-pandemic levels any time soon.
“If housing prices are continuing to remain relatively high, including rents, then certain sectors are just going to struggle to retain local workers based on the wage profiles,” Eyler said. “So we should expect this to linger especially in leisure and hospitality because we just don’t know how many people are going to come from the outside to where you need to rehire to pre-pandemic levels.”
The same applies to jobs statewide. The Governor’s Office stated that California has regained 1.9 million or about 70%, of the 2.7 million jobs lost in March and April 2020, or about 70%.
“While the state continues to see a robust recovery, creating nearly 22 percent of the nation’s jobs in November and the largest unemployment rate decrease since February, there’s still more work to be done getting folks back to work and supporting those hardest-hit by the pandemic,” Gov. Gavin Newsom said in a statement.
Economists are watching the response to the omicron coronavirus variant, which Eyler said could affect the willingness of employers to begin hiring and of shareholders to retain their shares in a company.
Local government jobs are also down 10% compared to about 4.5% in state government, Eyler said. While recessions typically impact government income through dips in property tax, income tax and sales tax, these factors are not believed to be playing a role in the dip in government jobs. Instead, Eyler said early retirements by employees is suspected to be one of the main drivers.
Meanwhile, other industries such as construction, manufacturing, transportation, professional business, accounting and consulting have returned to pre-pandemic levels or exceeded them in some cases, said Marin Economic Forum chief economist Robert Eyler.
Unemployment data
Unemployment rates in November 2021:
Marin County: 2.9%Statewide: 5.4%U.S.: 4.2%
Corte Madera: 4.3%Fairfax: 2.4%Inverness: 4.5%Larkspur: 2.1%Mill Valley: 1.8%Novato: 3%Point Reyes Station: 0%San Anselmo: 3.6%San Rafael: 2.6%Sausalito: 2.3%Tamalpais Homestead Valley: 2.5%Tomales: 0%
Source: California Employment Development Department
